Conditionals can take any kind of bullshit. Whenever you read a conditional verb accompanying an extraordinary statement in a headline, you can be sure that they are trying to pull some bullshit on you.
You can put your laser gun back in the storage room. There won’t be four waves of attackers from beyond Raticulín intent on destroying us
Although they quote a study, it suddenly turns out to be a “mental experiment”. In this text the one they allude to says absolutely nothing of what is suggested in the headline
Furthermore, the author concludes that the estimated number of potentially hostile civilisations capable of massacring us is 0.22%. That is, less than one. Which there is not. Not even a half. Nothing. And the probability of them coming to rip our guts out is even lower
“The upper limit of the standard deviation gives a probability of invasion of 0.028%”.
Although, on reflection, this doesn’t matter a jot because all this supposed data is invented on the basis that seven times an ass is twenty-eight.
They also talk about all this in episode 370 of the podcast Coffee Break: Signal and Noise from minute 30 and 52. The audio is at the bottom.
So where does this supposed round figure of four civilisations come from (which, when read in this way, might suggest that they are the four Raticulan provinces already located on the interstellar map)? Well, apparently from an interview in which the same person who writes this numerological bobbin lacework makes another mathematical pirouette.
In short, a piece of nonsense the size of a galactic piano where an astronomer fuses cabals and associations on a whim without any scientific basis in the purest style of maguffa numerology.
But the media don’t give a damn about all this, they come here to make money.
The best thing to do is to place the traditional image of the sausage UFO resulting from two soup plates flying over the big city. You know, you paint an apocalyptic and/or dystopian landscape from the movies and all you have to do is sit back and wait for the junk clicks and mentions from the believers and consumers of mysteriodism and the traditional end of the world jokes.
It’s commented in 30′ and 52′